2015 Melbourne Cup runner by runner preview

November 2, 2015

horse-racing-08We’ve gone through each of the 2015 Melbourne Cup runners to try and sort out the wheat from the chaff and the internationals are set to play a strong hand.

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The 2015 Melbourne Cup is Race 7 tomorrow and starting time is 3.00pm in the afternoon.

Here’s our preview of each Melbourne Cup runner along with their odds on Cup eve.

1 – SNOW SKY (16)

Trainer: Sir M Stoute Jockey: Ryan Moore 58kg
Career: 15: 5-2-2 Track: No Starts Distance: No Starts Distance Range Won: 1609m – 2816m

Hardwicke Stakes winner in June which has been a good recent form guide to this race so respect for that. Enjoyed a good on pace run in the Caulfield Cup and finished just under 5L from the winner.Stepping up to 3200m now with 58kg and has to do so from 16 which makes it a tough ask.

Verdict: Can’t see him winning on his Caulfield Cup run when had all the favours. No favours here and happy to look elsewhere.

$61.00 @ Sportsbet

2 – CRITERION (4)

Trainer: D.Hayes & T.Dabernig Jockey: Michael Walker 57.5kg
Career: 31: 7-7-5 Track: 4 Starts 0-1-0 Distance: No Starts Distance Range Won: 1100m – 2400m

Well travelled galloper who has had the benefit of an English summer in preparation for his spring campaign and his two runs since returning have been high quality. Can see this fellow sitting up on the pace and pouncing in the straight.

Verdict: Definitely in the mix with the in form Lindsay Park behind him. Distance query but he’s a Derby winner who is tough as nails and cherry ripe from good draw. Big chance!

$16.00 @ Sportsbet

3 – FAME GAME (12)

Trainer: Yoshitada Munakata Jockey: Zac Purton 57kg
Career: 17: 5-1-1 Track: No Starts Distance: 2 Starts 0-1-0 Distance Range Won: 2000m-3400m

Star Japanese galloper who has stifled betting since his luckless Caulfield Cup run, mind you he was almost 5L from the winner. His Tenno Sho second behind Gold Ship over this trips says he’s the one to beat, but at his current odds he is no value. A wet track is also against him too if the rains come.

Verdict: One to beat on his best form but no value at his current price in this field.

$4.40 @ Sportsbet

4 – OUR IVANHOE (22)

Trainer: Lee & Anthony Freedman Jockey: Ben Melham 56kg
Career: 14: 5-2-1 Track: 1 Start 0-1-0 Distance: No Starts Distance Range Won: 2200m-2400m

Most impressive past two starts including good thrd in the Caulfield Cup from a wide gate and will be peaking at his fourth run from a spell. Drawn 22 which makes his job that much tougher.

Verdict: Certainly in the mix but Fame Game & Trip To Paris appear to have him covered over the two miles.

$21.00 @ Sportsbet

5 – BIG ORANGE (23)

Trainer: Michael Bell Jockey: Jamie Spencer 55.5kg
Career: 13: 5-1-0 Track: No Starts Distance: 3 Starts 1-0-0 Distance Range Won: 2012m-3219m

More than handy type who accounted for Quest For More and Trip To Paris in the Arquana RC Stakes (3219m) at Newmarket (UK) in June, before finishing a long way back behind Max Dynamite prior to a spell. No problems with the distance and ideally suited on a good track. Barrier 23 is his main hurdle.

Verdict: Lightly raced and can run the trip but will need luck early from wide gate. Outside chance for ours.

$51.00 @ Sportsbet

6 – HARTNELL (17)

Trainer: J.A.O’Shea Jockey: James McDonald 55.5kg
Career: 20: 7:4:1 Track: 1 Start 0-0-0 / Distance: 2 Starts 1-0-0 Distange Range Won: 1609-3219mts

Outstanding form in the autumn but could still only manage 4th in the Sydney Cup (3200m) behind Grand Marshall & Who Shot Thebarman. Coming along reasonably well for this race and Cox Plate run not as bad as result suggests.

Verdict: Expect him to figure in first half of the field but will need be at his best and will also need luck early from wide gate.

$31.00 @ Sportsbet

7 – HOKKO BRAVE (20)

Trainer: Yasutoshi Matsunaga Jockey: Craig Williams 55.5kg
Career: 30: 5-5-5 Track: No Starts Distance: 2 Starts 0-0-1 Distance Range Won: 2200m-2600m

Classy Japanese stayer who was not far behind Fame Game in the Caulfield Cup and expect improvement from that outing. Fared poorly at the barrier draw with 20 and not been in the winner’s list for some time. Any Japanese galloper has to be considered but one would think Fame Game has better credentials.

Verdict: Should make his presence felt and capable of finishing in first third of the field.

$34.00 @ Sportsbet

8 – MAX DYNAMITE (2)

Trainer: W.P.Mullins Jockey: Frankie Dettori 55kg
Career: 18: 3-3-2 Track: No Starts Distance: 7 starts 1-3-0 Distance Range Won: 2200m-3299m

This Irish galloper has the benefit of solid recent form and a lovely inside barrier. When you add very good form over the journey then he has to be considered a live chance. William Mullins gets his gallopers fit and he ticks plenty of boxes.

Verdict: Any rain about only helps his chances and he’ll be strong at the end of two miles. Appears a great each-way chance.

$14.00 @ Sportsbet

9 – RED CADEAUX (8)

Trainer: Ed Dunlop Jockey: Gerald Mosse 55kg
Career: 53: 7-13-7 Track: 5 Starts 0-3-0 Distance: 8 Starts 0-4-1 Distance Range Won: 2400m-2816m

The people’s horse in the Melbourne Cup and he’s a three-time runner-up who who would bring the grandstands down if he could put his nose in front as they crossed the line. Down in weight from previous years and better drawn then previous years.

Verdict: Has proven himself at around this course & distance and at $30 plus he’s great each-way value.

$31.00 @ Sportsbet

10 – TRIP TO PARIS (14)

Trainer: Ed Dunlop Jockey: Tommy Berry
Career: 19: 6-3-1 Track: No Starts Distance: 2 Starts 1-0-1 Distance Range Won: 1408m-4023m 55kg

Red Cadeuax’s stablemate and be ironic is he was able to do what his illustrious stable companion couldn’t, win this race. Caulfield Cup has always been the best guide to the Melbourne Cup and Trip To Paris was the best run outside the winner. Will be even better over more ground and while every man & their dog say Fame Game will be too good, this bloke has excellent credentials of his own.

Verdict: Ed Dunlop has him primed and with Tommy Berry on top he’s outstanding value at current odds.

$7.50 @ Sportsbet

11 – WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (6)

Trainer: C.J.Waller Jockey: Blake Shinn 54.5kg
Career: 24: 8-3-1 Track: 4 Starts 2-0-1 Distance: 4 Starts 1-1-1 Distance Range Won: 1600m-3200m

Form better than it looks and he did run a big race last year when third. From the all conquering Chris Waller stable and barrier six gives him every chance to get a nice run in transit. With one win and two placings from four starts over the trip he has to be taken seriously.

Verdict: Concede he is a chance and bookies have probably got it about right.

$17.00 @ Sportsbet

12 – SKY HUNTER (7) 54kg

Trainer: Saeed Bin Suroor Jockey: William Buick
Career: 11: 6-1-1 Track: No Starts Distance: No Starts Distance Range Won: 1950m-2414m

Lightly raced Godolphin galloper with a good horse’s strike rate but yet to win beyond 2418 metres. Solid recent form and down in weight from recent outings, but finishing 5L behind Mount Athos four starts back over 2650m suggest this is beyond is his reach.

Verdict: Improving type but looks to be out of his depth here.

$41.00 @ Sportsbet

13 – THE OFFER (13)

Trainer: Ms. G. Waterhouse Jockey: Damien Oliver 54kg
Career: 27: 8-2-3 Track: 1 Start 0-0-0 Distance= 2 Starts 1-0-0 Distance Range Won: 1600m-3200m

Interesting runner considering his early favouritism for last year’s Melbourne Cup before injury ended his campaign. Tough Bendigo Cup (2400m) winner last week and the drop to 54kgs will help his chances, as will any rain.

Verdict: Sydney Cup winner over this trip and the Damien Oliver factor makes him one to watch.

$34.00 @ Sportsbet

14 – GRAND MARSHALL (15)

Trainer: C.J.Waller Jockey: Jim Cassidy 53.5kg
Career: 25: 7-5-2 Track: 1 Start 1-0-0 Distance: 1 Start 1-0-0 Distance Range Won: 1609m-3200m

Sydney Cup winner winner over this trip in the autumn and Chris Waller has this fellow in pretty good shape for a Melbourne Cup tilt. Will have to negotiate a wide barrier but Jim Cassidy has the ability to negate that obstacle.

Verdict: On his Caulfield Cup run he is right in this and worth an each-way ticket.

$51.00 @ Sportsbet

15 – PREFERMENT (11)

Trainer: C.J.Waller Jockey: Hugh Bowman 53.5kg
Career: 15: 3-4-1 Track: 2 Starts 2-0-0 Distance: 0 Starts Distance Range Won: 2000m-2500m

VRC Derby winner who is two from two at Flemington and he’s an out an out stayer. The Chris Waller & Hugh Bowman combination gives this 4yo bright hopes and there is no denying he has the turn of foot to make a serious tilt at the end of this race.

Verdict: Expect him to be thereabouts in the final stanza and sound chance at good each-way odds.

$90.00 @ Sportsbet

16 – QUEST FOR MORE (21)

Trainer: Roger Charlton Jockey: Damien Lane 53.5kg
Career: 19: 6-4-3 Track: No Starts Distance: 3 Starts 2-1-0 Distance Range Won: 1670m-3237m

Has form around Max Dynamite, Trip To Paris and Big Orange back home in the UK but was very ordinary in Geelong Cup (2400m) after racing on pace, though can be forgiven from wide gate. Beat Max Dynamite in the Northcumberland (3219m) in June and if you can forgive his last run (we can’t) then he has to be considered.

Verdict: Drops significantly in weight from Geelong Cup run but hard to have on that effort, despite form around a few other contenders.

$101.00 @ Sportsbet

17 – ALMOONQITH (10)

Trainer: D.Hayes & T. Dabernig Jockey: Dwayne Dunn 53kg
Career: 21: 5-3-1 Track: No Starts Distance: 1 Start 0-0-0 Distance Range Won: 1600m-2810m

Big winner of the Geelong Cup (2400m) last time out when kicked and kept finding, with talented stayer Dandino unable to run him down. A lot to like about that win and while he is up in class here, and also distance, he’s an improving type in the care of the hottest stable in the land.

Verdict: Looks a great chance on last victory, especially with Dwayne Dunn aboard from reasonable barrier

$15.00 @ Sportsbet

18 – KINGFISHER (9)

Trainer: A.O’Brien Jockey: Colm O’Donoghue 53kg
Career: 15: 3-2-2 Track: No Starts Distance: No Starts Distance Range Won: 1609m-2816m

Yet to win beyond 2816 but only 1.3L behind Trip To Paris in the Ascot Gold Cup back in June in the UK. Down in the weights on what he’s used to carrying back home and the Aiden O’Brien factor certainly makes this bloke an interesting runner.

Verdict: Fared well at the barrier and he appears to have a better chance than his latest odds suggest. Outside chance.

$81.00 @ Sportsbet

19 – PRINCE OF PENZANCE (1)

Trainer: D.K.Weir Jockey: Michelle Payne 53kg
Career: 23: 6-6-2 Track: 6 Starts 1-3-0 Distance: No Starts Distance Range Won: 1300m-2500m

Always shown ability but plagued by injury just as he appeared destined for stardom. Moonee Valley Cup winner last year (2500m) and returned again this year to beat all but The United States and comes into this race in solid form. Down 4kgs from last run and barrier one gives him every chance to run the race of his life. Lightly raced and jockey bouyant about his chances. Weir factor also comes into play.

Verdict: A few others appear better but he has the ability to make his presence felt and if he snuck into a place it wouldn’t be overly surprising.

$81.00 @ Sportsbet

20 – BONDI BEACH (18)

Trainer: A.O’Brien Jockey: Brett Prebble 52.5kg
Career: 5: 2-3-0 Track: No Starts Distance: No Starts Distance Range Won: 2414m-2816m

Thoughts: Another Aiden O’Brien runner who has only had five starts for two wins and three seconds. Tough to win a Melbourne Cup at just your sixth start but the trainer must think he has the ability or he wouldn’t have brought him over. The 52.5kg be a luxury for this bloke but the 18 barrier negates that to some extent, as he will need luck early. Hard to line him up but looks like he could be a contender if a little bit of luck goes his way.

Verdict: In top stable and not out here for a holiday, so has to be respected. One for multiples.

$21.00 @ Sportsbet

21 – SERTORIOUS (5)

Trainer: Jamie Edwards Jockey: Craig Newitt 52.5kg
Career: 41: 10-10-4 Track: 6 Starts 1-2-1 Distance: 1 Start 0-0-1 Distance Range Won: 1200m-2400m

Placed over this distance and capable stayer on his day. Form better than it looks and drops hugely in weight from recent starts. Add the luxury of barrier 5 and an in form Craig Newitt and he’s a better than than the $301 suggests. Mind you, it’s hard to see him winning but a place is not out of the question with the right run.

Verdict: Not for ours but more than handy stayer when right and has a few things in his favour.

$101.00 @ Sportsbet

22 – THE UNITED STATES (3)

Trainer: Robert Hickmott Jockey: Joao Moriera 52.5kg
Career: 12: 5-2-1 Track: 1 Starts 0-0-0 Distance: No Starts Distance Range Won: 1408m-2500m

Found form at the right time and hit the line strongly to win the Moonee Valley Cup (2500m) last start in stylish fashion. Drops 3.5kg on last start and races as though the trip will suit. Drawn ideally in barrier three and the services of Joao Moriera is just another plus.

Verdict; Ticks a few boxes and rarely runs a bad race. Sound each-way chance and could surprise.

$20.00 @ Sportsbet

23 – EXCESS KNOWLEDGE (24)

Trainer: Ms.G.Waterhouse Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy 51kg
Career: 18: 5-5-2 Track: 2 Starts 1-0-0 Distance: 0 Starts Distance Range Won: 1300m-2500m
Survived a protest to win the Lexus Stakes (2500m) on Saturday to gain a Melbourne Cup berth and was rewarded with the outside barrier. On a positive note he only has to carry 51.kilograms. Another lightly raced type who was a good winner in a lesser class race last time out, but find this a different kettle of fish.

Verdict: Gai knows how to get them fit but not convinced he will get two miles. Looking elsewhere.

$34.00 @ Sportsbet

24 – GUST OF WIND (19)

Trainer: J.G.Sargent Jockey: Chad Schofield 51kg
Career: 9: 3-0-0 Track: 2 Starts 0-0-0 Distance: No Starts Distance Range Won: 1400m-2400m

Boasts a win over Cox Plate winner Winx back in April on soft ground in the ATC Oaks (2400m) and she finished less than 4L from Mongolian Khan when fourth in the Caulfield Cup. Taken a while to find form this time in but last start suggest she is close to her best.

Verdict: Poorly drawn but she’s a genuine lightweight chance on her Caulfield Cup run, especially if things go her way and there’s a bit of rain about..

$34.00 @ Sportsbet

Odds are subject to change – Visit Sportsbet for the latest odds.

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Category: Melbourne Feature Races