2011 AFL Football Finals Week 1 Preview, Tips and Odds

September 9, 2011

The first week of the 2011 AFL Football Finals kicks off on Friday night 9th September 2011 with the highly anticipated clash between Geelong and Hawthorn at the MCG in Melbourne and AFL punters can enjoy a number of bonus bets and special offers from online bookmakers this weekend.

A Centrebet account is a must for AFL betting so you can take advantage of their ‘Pick Your Own Line’ bet type. It’s the only way to bet on the football!

For example, you can get $2.13 about the Sydney (+31.5 points) and Essendon (+30.5 points) double if you pick your own line at Centrebet.

AFL Finals Special Offers

Sportsbet Six Point Saver Offer – Place a bet on anymarket in any of the four AFL matches on the weekend and if your bet is on a team that loses the match by 6 points or less you’ll get your money back! Visit Sportsbet

IASbet Geelong v Hawthorn Special – Place a Tri bet on Geelong vs Hawthorn and you’ll receive a bonus bet on the Super Margin market to the same value of your original bet up to $10 on Carlton v Essendon on Saturday, 11 September. Visit IASbet

Centrebet AFL Finals Offers – Qtr by Qtr offer, Centrebet First Goal Scorer offer, Centrebet Most Disposals in group offer. Visit Centrebet

Sportingbet AFL 100 Not Out Offer – Have a minimum $10 bet on any AFL Finals H2H market and if your team scores 100 points or more, and subsequently loses the match, we’ll refund your stake up to $150! Join Sportingbet

Best Bonus Bets for the 2011 AFL Football Finals from Australia’s best Bookmakers
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Enjoy a bonus bet on the first week of the Finals from Australia’s premier bookmakers.

2011 AFL Football Finals Week 1 Preview

Geelong Hawthorn
$1.66 $2.28

Friday 9th September MCG 7.45pm

Last Week

Geelong beat Collingwood 149-53 with Daniel Menzel kicking 5 goals and Paul Chapman and Allen Christensen 3 goals each for the Cats. Hawthorn beat the Gold Coast 106-97 with Luke Breust kicking 5 goals and Isaac Smith and Brendan Whitecross kicking 3 goals each for the Hawks..

Recent History

Year Rd Home Pts Away Pts Venue
2011 R12 Geelong 88 Hawthorn 83 MCG
2011 R5 Hawthorn 98 Geelong 117 MCG
2010 R15 Geelong 85 Hawthorn 83 MCG
2010 R2 Hawthorn 91 Geelong 100 MCG
2009 R17 Geelong 99 Hawthorn 98 MCG

Geelong has won the past five encounters and have not lost to Hawthorn since the 2008 Grand Final. The Hawks however have a solid record against the Cats in Finals matches that matter.

Our Tip: Geelong

We expect Geelong’s defence to be the difference here and they have the ability to quell Franklin’s influence which will go a long way towards winning the match. Their finals experience and big win over Collingwood last week have them in great shape to take on a fresh hawthorn side who have defensive deficiencies down back against a tallish Geelong forward line.

The Hawks will have a crack but the Cats have clearly been one the two best teams this year and they should prove that tonight at the MCG. The expected heavy rains could play a part in proceedings but all things being equal Geelong should prove too good.

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Collingwood West Coast
$1.19 $4.75

Saturday 10th September MCG 2.20pm

Last Week

Collingwood was smashed by Geelong to the tune of 96 points at the hands of Geelong and Chris Dawes kicked 2 goals for the Magpies.

Recent History

Year Rd Home Pts Away Pts Venue
2011 R10 Collingwood 105 West Coast 53 MCG
2010 R14 Collingwood 135 West Coast 52 Etihad
2009 R9 West Coast 66 Collingwood 88 Subiaco
2008 R10 Collingwood 173 West Coast 73 MCG
2007 SF West Coast 74 Collingwood 93 Subiaco

Collingwood has won their past 5 matches against the Eagles and they have been unable to score more than 74 points in those five games, and in their last two matches have only scored 53 and 52 points respectively.

Our Tip: Collingwood

The Magpies had a hiccup last week in the farce against the Cats but expect the best team of the season to be up and about for this one. Collingwood has known for weeks that would most likely meet the Eagles in their first final and have been gearing towards this encounter since then.

The West Coast have have had a fantastic season and if this game was played in Perth then you would give them some chance against the Magpies. At home with an experienced Finals side we fancy Collingwood will get the job done when it matters.

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St Kilda Sydney
$1.37 $3.10

Saturday 10 September, Etihad Stadium 7.20pm

Last Week

St Kilda beat Carlton 86-66 with Stephen Milne kicking 3 goals for the Saints. Sydney beat Brisbane 119-67 with Jude Bolton and Adam Goodes kicking 4 goals each for the Swans.

Recent History

Year Rd Home Pts Away Pts Venue
2011 R22 Sydney 83 St Kilda 68 ANZ
2010 R1 Sydney 88 St Kilda 96 ANZ
2009 R18 Sydney 93 St Kilda 94 SCG
2009 R1 St Kilda 80 Sydney 65 Etihad
2008 R12 Sydney 102 St Kilda 67 SCG

Sydney won the most recent encounter a few short weeks ago at ANZ Stadium in Sydney and if they had of kicked straighter they would have won by a much bigger margin. At this venue the Saints have a dominant record and the Swans are going to have to buck a very poor recent trend to win this match at Etihad Stadium.

Our Tip: Sydney

St Kilda are finals chokers and Sydney represent great value in this match. They defeated Geelong down at Skilled Stadium and will fancy themselves against the Saints with Adam Goodes to lead the charge.

Sydney are tremendous value if you pick your own line at Centrebet and take a few goals head start.

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Carlton Essendon
$1.36 $3.15

Sunday 10th September MCG 2.40pm

Last Week

Carlton was beaten by St Kilda 66-86 with Setanta O’hAilpin kicking 4 goals for the Blues and Essendon had a bye last round.

Recent History

Year Rd Home Pts Away Pts Venue
2011 R18 Essendon 79 Carlton 153 MCG
2011 R4 Carlton 79 Essendon 79 MCG
2010 R19 Essendon 73 Carlton 149 MCG
2010 R3 Carlton 75 Essendon 95 MCG
2009 R13 Essendon 136 Carlton 67 MCG

Carlton has won two of the past three matches and Essendon won the previous two meetings all at this ground. Carlton smashes the Bombers when they met in Round 18 this season after playing out a draw in Round four.

Our Tip: Carlton

A good defence goes a long way in the finals and Carlton has been much better in that department this year compared to the Bombers and that could make the difference in this match, along with the brilliant Chris Judd for the Blues. At their current odds the Blues are very much unders for ours and the Bombers with the week off will come to play. Essendon is great value here and appeal as a very good bet if you pick your own line at Centrebet and take a few goals head start.

Essendon are a definite chance of upsetting Carlton but we espect the Blues to prove too good in this one when push comes to shove.

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Category: AFL Football