$1.60 and Carlton $2.40 on Friday 27th August at Subiaco Oval in Perth where the winner will earn themselves a home final next weekend.
Five matches will be played on Saturday in the AFL including three in the afternoon and bookmakers have most teams at very short quotes, including Geelong $1.02 against West Coast $15.00 at Skilled Stadium, Collingwood $1.51 over Hawthorn $2.65 at the MCG and St Kilda $1.53 to beat Adelaide Crows $2.58 at AAMI,
In Saturday night games the Sydney Swans $1.36 are expected to get over Brisbane $3.25 at the Gabba while the Western Bulldogs $1.18 are highly fancied to beat Essendon at Etihad Stadium.
On Sunday Richmond $1.70 are fancied to beat Port Adelaide $2.20 in Ben Cousin’s farewell game at Etihad Stadium while James McDonald will play his last game for Melbourne $2.00 against Nth Melbourne $1.85 at the MCG 4:40pm.
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AFL Round 22 Preview
Friday, 27 August Subiaco 6:40pm Last Week
Fremantle were insipid last weekend against the Hawks and they have set themselves for this match against Carlton. Michael Johnson and Ryan Murphy kicked 2 goals last round with Greg Broughton 30 and Michael Johnson 24 most touches.
Carlton were never in it against Geelong and were outclassed on the night. Lachlan Henderson, Jarrad Waite and Mitch Robinson grabbed 3 goals each with Marc Murphy 30 and Andrew Carrazzo 28 getting most of the ball.
This Week
Fremantle In: Pavlich, Mundy, Mcphee, Morabito, Hayden, Hill, Fyfe, Mayne, Hasleby, Sandilands Out: Dodd, Murphy, Palmer, Hinkley, Pearce, Bollenhagen, Clarke, Bradley, Ruffles, Schammer
Carlton In: Joseph, Hampson, Yarran Out: Hadley, Walker, Jacobs
Recent History
2010
R13
Carlton
87
Fremantle 96
Etihad
2009
R14
Fremantle
100
Carlton 115
Subiaco
2009
R7
Carlton
81
Fremantle 88
Gold Coast
2008
R9
Carlton 97
Fremantle
88
Telstra
2007
R13
Fremantle 173
Carlton
96
Subiaco
Carlton defeated the Dockers the last time they met at this venue during last season although Fremantle won the earlier clash this season at Etihad in Melbourne and recent matches have alternated winners. If the trend continues then it’s the Blues turn to win.
Last 5 Rounds for & against
Fremantle
12.8
18.8
86
123
331
427
25.8
22.7
53
56
58
59
Carlton
16.4
12.6
110
90
354
359
21.6
28.5
55
51
57
58
Carlton clearly on top in both attack and defence compared to the Dockers although last week’s poor effort by Fremantle has inflated those figures a bit. The Blues key indicators are superior to the Dockers in the ones that count most but this is offset to some degree by the the Docker’s home ground advantage.
Our Tip: FremantleSandilands back is a huge in for Fremantle and the fact they have set themselves for this games leads us to believe they can get the points over Carlton. The Blues have fared well against teams below them on the ladder but when tested against stronger sides they have been found wanting. The Dockers have played top football at times this season and at home we fancy the Dockers to get the points here comfortably.
Saturday 28 August Skilled 1:10pm Last Week
Geelong were much too good for the Blues last week with both James Podsiadly and Gary Ablett kicking 4 goals and major ball winners Paul Chapman 33 and Joel Selwood 27.
West Coast tried hard against the Kangaroos before being overrun in the last quarter and Callum Wilson was more than handy with 4 goals while Andrew Embley 33 and Dean Cox 28 got most of the ball.
This Week
Geelong In: Ling, Ottens, Mackie, Lonergan Out: Podsiadly (Suspended), J.Hunt (Suspended), T.Hunt, Menzel
West Coast No Changes
Recent History
2010
R11
West Coast
98
Geelong 122
Subiaco
2009
R11
West Coast
77
Geelong 99
Subiaco
2008
R22
Geelong 164
West Coast
65
Skilled
2008
R13
West Coast
47
Geelong 182
Subiaco
2007
R7
Geelong 109
West Coast
70
Skilled
Geelong has beaten the Eagles in their past five clashes which include three games played in Perth which suggest at home the Cats will be far too good again.
Last 5 Rounds for & against
Geelong
18.8
10.6
124
76
416
348
22.1
32.8
52
52
65
62
West Coast
11
14.6
77
102
350
383
31.8
26.2
50
62
54
56
Key indicators are dominated by Geelong and it’s hard to see the Eagles causing them any problems whatsoever.
Our Tip: GeelongThe Cats should win this game very easily but football is a funny game at times and the Eagles scored an upset win over Geelong at this venue back in 2006 at big odds when punters gave them no chance, but we doubt that will happen again and Geelong to salute by a big margin for ours.
Saturday 28 August MCG 2:00pm Last Week
Hawthorn had a walk in the park defeating the Dockers in Tasmania with Lance Franklin 5 goals, Jarryd Roughead 4, Shaun Burgoyne 4 and Cyril Rioli 3 all helping to rout Fremantle while most touches went by way of Shaun Burgoyne 37, Sam Mitchell 35 and Josh Gibson 34.
Collingwood were almost upset by the Crows in what turned out to be a hard fought win in the end. Dale Thomas and Leigh Brown were good with 2 goals while Scott Pendlebury was superb with 30 touches while Dane Swan and Steele Sidebottom 28 each.
This Week
Hawthorn In: Young, Hooper Out: Birchall (Hamstring), Hodge (Knee)
Collingwood In: Fraser, Reid, Mccarthy Out: L.Brown (Suspended), Didak (Shoulder), Anthony
Recent History
2010
R4
Collingwood 123
Hawthorn
59
MCG
2009
R16
Collingwood
76
Hawthorn 121
MCG
2008
R18
Collingwood
62
Hawthorn 116
MCG
2008
R7
Hawthorn 154
Collingwood
89
MCG
2007
R13
Collingwood
87
Hawthorn 95
Telstra
Hawthorn and in particular Buddy Franklin have dominated Collingwood in recent years with three dominant wins in a row before the Pies broke the trend back in Round 4 earlier this season with an authoritative victory at the MCG.
Last 5 Rounds for & against
Hawthorn
15.4
12.6
102
85
355
340
23.1
27
54
53
53
60
Collingwood
15.6
8.8
111
60
398
339
25.5
38.5
58
42
64
61
Both sides are strong offensively although the Hawks figures were boosted last week by their big win over the Dockers. The Pies defence concedes around 4 goals a week less than Hawthorn and Franklin holds the key to the Hawk’s chances here.
Our Tip: CollingwoodThis game has little bearing for the Pies as their position on the ladder won’t change whereas the Hawks can conceivably finish as high as 5th or 6th and possibly get a home final with a win. Having said that, Collingwood is 6 points clear on top for a reason and Hawthorn will find out why on Saturday afternoon as we expect the Pies to come out on top.
Saturday 28 August AAMI 3:40pm Last Week
Adelaide almost upset league leaders Collingwood at the MCG last week with Taylor Walker nabbing 2 goals and most disposals to Scott Thompson 29 and Graham Johncock 27.
St Kilda scored a 21 point win over Richmond with Justin Koschitzke back in town with 5 goals and Nick Riewoldt 3 with Leigh Montagna grabbing 42 touches along with Nick Dal Santo 36.
This Week
Adelaide In: Martin Out: Young (Shoulder)
St Kilda In: Dawson, Jones, Gardiner, Hayes Out: Schneider, Dempster, Pattison, Heyne
Recent History
2010
R10
St Kilda 123
Adelaide
76
Etihad
2009
R16
St Kilda 105
Adelaide
48
Etihad
2009
R2
Adelaide
69
St Kilda 101
AAMI
2008
R21
St Kilda 95
Adelaide
47
Telstra
2007
R15
St Kilda 82
Adelaide
80
Telstra
St Kilda has won the past five meetings against the Crows including the most recent meeting earlier this season at Etihad.
Last 5 Rounds for & against
Adelaide
9.8
11
71
80
356
374
36.3
34
48
49
64
65
St Kilda
16.4
12
109
82
401
362
24.4
30.2
54
47
54
48
The Saints have upped the ante up forward in recent weeks with Koschitzke and Reiwoldt looming ominous for the finals and they may hold the difference here, although the Crows have been fairly solid defensively. The significant stat is in this match is St Kilda’s much improved disposals per goal figure of 24 compared to the Crow’s 36 which says the Saints have a major advantage in this match.
Our Tip: St KildaSt Kilda are travelling very nicely in recent weeks and while the Crows are likely to take it up to the Saints we think the all round strength of St Kilda will get the job done easily over Adelaide.
Saturday 28 August Gabba 7:10pm Last Week
Brisbane scored a solid win over the Bombers on the back of 4 goals from Jonathan Brown and 3 from Todd Banfield while Simon Black and Luke Power both had 31 touches along with Daniel Rich 30.
Sydney were much too good for a disappointing Bulldogs with Trent Dennis-Lane snaring 4 majors with Daniel Hannebery 27, Adam Goodes 25 and Kieren Goodes 25 getting most of the ball.
This Week
Brisbane In: Collier, Proud Out: Selwood (Ribs), Brown (Groin)
Sydney In: O’Keefe, Moore Out: Mumford (Knee), Rohan
Recent History
2010
R6
Sydney 107
Brisbane Lions
87
SCG
2009
R22
Sydney
92
Brisbane Lions 100
SCG
2009
R3
Brisbane Lions 100
Sydney
67
Gabba
2008
R22
Sydney 114
Brisbane Lions
53
SCG
2008
R3
Brisbane Lions
71
Sydney 88
Gabba
Sydney won the earlier clash this season at the SCG in Round 6 while Brisbane won both games last season. On recent history this match could go either way but on recent form the Swans are going much better than the Lions.
Last 5 Rounds for & against
Brisbane
11
12.8
78
88
376
373
34.2
29.1
53
50
66
62
Sydney
13.8
15.6
96
102
360
320
26.1
20.5
51
52
54
56
Sydney are scoring almost 3 goals a game more than the Lions and the Swans points against is inflated by two beltings from Geelong and melbourne and Sydney have conceded 13 goals or less in their last three matches. The Swans are scoring goals at 26 disposals as opposed to the Lions 34.
Our Tip: SydneyThe Lions without Jonathan Brown will find it tough against a Sydney side in top form of late and high on confidence after last week’s big win over the Bulldogs. We fancy the Swans to be too good at the Gabba.
Saturday 28 August Etihad 7:10pm Last Week
The Western Bulldogs were poor against the Swans with Ben Hudson, Nathan Eagleton, Barry Hall and Jarrad Grant all scoring 2 goals while Matthew Boyd had most disposals with 24.
Essendon were not much better going down to the Brisbane Lions and Kyle Reimers managed 2 goals with Leroy Jetta 26 and Cale Hooker 25 leading possession winners.
This Week
Western Bulldogs In: Addison, Everitt, Roughead Out: Cooney (Hamstring), Johnson (Achilles), Morris (Back)
Essendon In: Colyer, Ryder, Winderlich, Lonergan Out: Watson (Ankle), Mcveigh (Knee), Neagle, Quinn
Recent History
2010
R10
Essendon 99
Bulldogs
90
Etihad
2009
R16
Essendon
70
Bulldogs 103
Etihad
2008
R21
Bulldogs 151
Essendon
105
Telstra
2008
R4
Essendon
98
Bulldogs 128
Telstra
2007
R15
Essendon
98
Bulldogs 131
Telstra
The Bulldogs won four in a row against the Bombers scoring 103+ points on each occasion before Essendon turned the tables in Round 10 this season at this very venue keeping the Dogs to just 90 points.
Last 5 Rounds for & against
West Bulldogs
14.6
14.2
98
95
380
374
26
26.3
53
49
57
61
Essendon
12.6
14.6
87
120
360
370
28.6
25.3
46
57
65
60
Key indicators marginally in favour of the Western Bulldogs and shows just how far the Bulldogs have slipped in recent weeks compared to how well they were going a few weeks ago.
Our Tip: Western BulldogsNeither side going great guns but the Bulldogs are certainly a better unit than Essendon even though the boys from the west lack the heart to take it up to the better sides. The Western Bulldogs should win this match all things being equal.
Sunday 29 August Etihad 2;10pm Last Week
Richmond had a decent crack against the Saints and Jack Riewoldt was again good with 7 goals while Jake King chipped in with 3 of his own. Daniel Connors 26, Brett Deledio 25 and Shane Edwards 25 got most of the ball.
Port Adelaide were too strong at home for the Demons with Jay Schulz 5 goals, Travis Boak 3 and Robert Gray 3 while Domenic Cassisi 27 and Kane Cornes 26 had mos possessions.
This Week
Richmond In: Polo, Browne, Nason, White, Grimes Out: Thursfield (Leg), Astbury (Hip)
Port Adelaide In: Pettigrew, Banner, Davenport, Logan Out: Ebert (Knee)
Last 5 Rounds for & against
2010
R10
Port Adelaide
30
Richmond 77
AAMI
2009
R8
Port Adelaide 102
Richmond
99
AAMI
2008
R13
Port Adelaide
123
Richmond 127
AAMI
2007
R16
Richmond
100
Port Adelaide 155
MCG
2007
R7
Port Adelaide 115
Richmond
75
AAMI
Richmond scored a 47 point win over Port Adelaide in Round 10 of this season to start a rich vein of form for the Tigers and the past four meetings between these two sides have resulted in alternating wins for both sides. The last game at this venue seen a 55 point victory to Port Adelaide back in 2007.
Last 5 Rounds for & against
Richmond
11.2
17.2
77
117
342
385
30.5
22.4
49
53
49
55
Port Adelaide
11.8
12.6
82
89
336
369
28.5
29.3
54
53
54
65
Both sides are fairly even in attack but Port Adelaide are conceding five goals a game less than the Tigers which is significant but that will be offset by the game being played in Melbourne.
Our Tip: RichmondPort are unpredictable away from home and the Tigers should be up and about for Ben Cousin’s last game and we expect Richmond to snare another win to finish the season.
Sunday 29 August MCG 4:40pm Last Week
Melbourne were in it early against Port at AAMI before going down by 29 points with Liam Jurrah kicking 4 goals and Cameron Bruce 39 and Brent Moloney 28 getting a heap of the ball.
Nth Melbourne travelled to Perth to grind out a top win over the Eagles with Samuel Wright 4, Aaron Edwards, Andrew Swallow and Ben Warren 3 goals while Brady Rawlings 28 and Andrew Swallow 27 most touches.
This Week
Melbourne In: Johnson, Macdonald, Sylvia, Bate Out: Bennell
North Melbourne In: Goldstein, Tarrant, Macmillan, Campbell, Jones Out: Adams (Concussion), Hansen (Hamstring)
Last 5 Rounds for & against
2010
R6
Nth Melbourne 104
Melbourne
78
Etihad
2009
R19
Nth Melbourne 123
Melbourne
61
Etihad
2009
R1
Melbourne
67
Nth Melbourne 101
MCG
2008
R17
Melbourne
70
Nth Melbourne 98
MCG
2008
R4
Nth Melbourne 127
Melbourne
79
MCG
Nth Melbourne has won their past five clashes against Melbourne which does not auger too well for the Demons on Sunday.
Last 5 Rounds for & against
Melbourne
14.4
12.4
97
85
362
340
25.1
27.5
57
57
62
54
Nth Melb
14.4
16.2
97
109
386
400
26.8
24.7
53
55
60
53
Key indicators are fairly even except for the Kangaroos conceding more goals a game in recent weeks thanks to a couple of heavy losses.
Our Tip: Nth MelbourneThe Roos went to Perth and scored 16 goals against the Eagles in an excellent team effort and we fancy them to carry on the good form against a Melbourne outfit who appear to be tapering off from their good form of a few weeks ago.
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Round 22 of AFL Football commences with the highly anticipated clash between Fremantle $1.60 and Carlton $2.40 on Friday 27th August at Subiaco Oval in Perth where the winner will earn themselves a home final next weekend.
