In matches on Saturday Hawthorn tackle Fremantle at Aurora Stadium in Tasmania while St Kilda are at unbackable odds to get over Richmond at Etihad Stadium.
Saturday night in Sydney the Swans will be up against it when the Western Bulldogs land at the SCG and back in Melbourne the top of the table Collingwood host the Adelaide Crows at the MCG.
Three games on Sunday have Port Adelaide at home to Melbourne in Adelaide at AAMI Stadium, Essendon take on Brisbane at Etihad Stadium and the West Coast welcome Nth Melbourne to Subiaco Oval.
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AFL Round 21 Preview
Friday, 20 August Etihad 7:40pm Last Week
Geelong demolished the Bulldogs by 101 points with Steve Johnson grabbing 5 goals and James Podsiadly, Gary Ablett and Travis Varcoe kicked 3 each. Gary Ablett was brilliant with 39 disposals while Joel Selwood 35 and Corey Enright 34 were also good.
Carlton smashed Richmond by 89 points with both Jarrad Waite and Jeffrey Garlett kicking 4 goals each and Lachlan Henderson 3. Most possessions went by way of Chris Judd 30 and Heath Scotland 29.
This Week
Geelong In: Taylor, Blake, Corey Out: Ottens (Virus), Laidler, T.Hunt
Recent History
2010
R5
Carlton 104
Geelong
68
MCG
2009
R19
Carlton 97
Geelong
62
MCG
2008
R20
Geelong 133
Carlton
77
Telstra
2007
R21
Geelong 162
Carlton
84
Telstra
2006
R22
Carlton
77
Geelong 142
Telstra
Calrton has won the past two meetings against Geelong by 32 and 35 points both at the MCG while the previous three encounters at Etihad Stadium resulted in convincing wins to Geelong. Carlton won the earlier meeting this season in Round 5.
Last 5 Rounds for & against
Geelong
17.0
10.4
112
75
420
360
24.7
34.6
48
52
64
61
Carlton
16.0
12.2
108
87
352
358
22.0
29.4
56
48
64
62
Geelong are marginally superior in attack and defence although both sides are travelling very nicely in that department over the past 5 rounds. The Blues have a better disposals per goal rate and inside 50 rate which says they can take it up to Geelong in this match.
Our Tip: GeelongDanger game for the Cats as they have dropped their last two against Carlton but we expect them to get the job done and take the four points with Taylor and Corey back. Carlton are definitely over the odds on their recent record against the Cats and they are worth a shot if you pick your own line at Centrebet and take a points head start as they have won the past two meetings by over 5 goals.
Saturday 14th August MCG 2:10pm Last Week
Hawthorn proved too good for Melbourne over four quarters with Lance Franklin and Xavier Ellis nabbing 3 goals each while Brad Sewell 27, Sam Mitchell 26 and Shaun Burgoyne 23 got plenty of the ball.
Fremantle lost at home to the Swans by 11 points with Michael Walters, Paul Hasleby and Kepler Bradley scoring 2 goals each while Greg Broughton 24, Kepler Bradley 21 got most of the ball.
This Week
Hawthorn In: Rioli Out: Hooper (Soreness)
Recent History
2009
R8
Fremantle
65
Hawthorn 87
Subiaco
2008
R2
Fremantle
97
Hawthorn 112
Subiaco
2007
R7
Fremantle 96
Hawthorn
80
Subiaco
2006
R18
Fremantle 104
Hawthorn
51
Subiaco
2006
R1
Hawthorn 109
Fremantle
87
Aurora
The last four meetings have all been played at Subiaco in Perth where Hawthorn has won the past two meetings while Fremantle won the prior two games. The last time they played away from Perth was early in season 2006 where the Hawks were victorious.
Last 5 Rounds for & against
Hawthorn
14.0
13.0
95
86
347
329
24.8
25.3
54
50
56
61
Fremantle
14.0
16.0
95
107
330
407
23.6
25.5
55
53
58
61
Both sides scoring at 14 goals each but the Hawks are three goals better in defence although the Dockers are slightly better at disposals per goal. With the game being played in Melbourne the key indicators will clearly favour Hawthorn.
Our Tip: HawthornThe Dockers have made it easy for Hawthorn by resting a number of key players for this clash. The Hawks would have most likely taken the points in Melbourne anyway even if the Dockers had of played those players. Hawthorn should win this clash quite comfortably.
Satutrday, 21 August Etihad 2:10pm Last Week
St Kilda were far too good for Nth Melbourne with Nick Riewoldt back in town with 7 goals while Brendon Goddard 37 and Jason Gram 34 got plenty of it.
Richmond were no match for Carlton with Jack Riewoldt kicking 2 goals while Shane Tuck, Daniel Connors, Mitch Morton 26 and Ben Cousins all got 26 touches.
This Week
St Kilda In: Armitage, Pattison, Miles Out: Eddy (Hand), Stanley, Hayes (Back)
Recent History
2010
R11
Richmond
59
St Kilda 97
Etihad
2009
R13
St Kilda 92
Richmond
36
Etihad
2008
R7
Richmond
107
St Kilda 110
Telstra
2007
R22
Richmond
92
St Kilda 102
MCG
2007
R13
St Kilda 117
Richmond
100
Telstra
St Kilda has dominated the Tigers in recent times winning the last 5 clashes which include the Round 11 match this season where the Saints got up by 38 points.
Last 5 Rounds for & against
St Kilda
14.2
12.2
96
83
403
371
28.4
30.4
51
46
54
55
Richmond
9.8
16.8
69
115
337
385
34.4
22.9
50
53
57
62
Key indicators over the last 5 rounds suggest Richmond are going to have to pull a rabbit out of their hat to get the points against St Kilda.
Our Tip: St KildaSt Kilda are hitting their straps at the right time of the season and Richmond seem to be feeling the effects of a long season which should result in an easy St Kilda win again over the Tigers.
Saturday, 21 August SCG SCG 7:10pm Last Week
Sydney got the job done in Perth over Fremantle and Ben McGlynn was pivotal with 3 goals while Trent Dennis-Lane chimed in with 2 of his own. Daniel Hannebery was clearly best on ground with 38 touches while Tadhg Kennelly 27 had a solid game.
The Western Bulldogs were humiliated by the Cats with Daniel Giansiracusa grabbing 3 majors and Barry Hall and Liam Jones nabbing 2 each. Most disposals went by way of Matthew Boyd 35 and Daniel Cross 30.
This Week
Sydney In: Smith, Rohan Out: Mcglynn (Cheekbone), Moore (Concussion)
Recent History
2010
R8
Bulldogs 101
Sydney
63
Manuka
2009
R10
Bulldogs 117
Sydney
77
Manuka
2008
SF
Bulldogs 106
Sydney
69
MCG
2008
R18
Bulldogs 113
Sydney
97
Manuka
2008
R7
Sydney
94
Bulldogs 112
SCG
The Western Bulldogs have won the last five meetings against Sydney and they have all been played in NSW. The Bulldogs have also scored over 100 points on each occasion which does not auger well for the Sydney outfit.
Last 5 Rounds for & against
Sydney
13.6
15.6
95
101
366
333
26.9
21.3
50
53
58
61
West Bulldogs
15.0
12.2
101
82
416
371
27.7
30.4
55
48
57
57
The Western Bulldogs offense and defense has performed much better than Sydneys in recent weeks plus the Dogs go inside 50 five times more a match which suggests the Swans are going to have to play well above their recent efforts to get close to the boys from the west.
Our Tip: Western BulldogsSydney will no doubt have a crack on the back of their good recent form but the Bulldogs have brought back a number of talented players for this clash which should see them prove too strong for the Swans, especially when you factor in the Bulldogs recent history against Sydney.
Saturday, 21 August MCG 7:10pm Last Week
Collingwood smashed Essendon by 98 points with Travis Cloke grabbing 5 goals and both Nathan Brown and Brent Macaffer 3 while Scott Pendlebury 32, Dane Swan 31 and Dayne Beams 29 got most disposals.
The Adelaide Crows had a good seven point win over the Lions with Kurt Tippett scoring 5 goals and Jason Porplyzia 3 while most possessions went to Richard Douglas 31, Brad Symes 25 and Nathan van Berlo 23
This Week
Collingwood In: Ball, Goldsack, Anthony Out: Medhurst, Lockyer, Prestigiacomo (Corked Quad)
Recent History
2009
SF
Collingwood 83
Adelaide
78
MCG
2009
R19
Adelaide
68
Collingwood 89
AAMI
2009
R1
Collingwood
86
Adelaide 90
MCG
2008
EF
Adelaide
94
Collingwood 125
AAMI
2008
R15
Collingwood 106
Adelaide
74
MCG
Collingwood has won four of its past five matches against Adelaide including two wins at AAMI Stadium in Melbourne. Theor last meeting was in the Finals last season when the Pies came from behind to score a most unlikely win.
Last 5 Rounds for & against
Collingwood
17.4
8.6
120
61
397
349
22.8
40.6
59
40
64
60
Adelaide
10.6
11.6
76
82
367
379
34.6
32.7
49
50
61
62
All key indicators favour Collingwood clearly and the most damning factor is the Magpies 23 disposals per goal compared to the Crows 35 per goal and on stats alone its hard to see Adelaide causing the Pies many problems.
Our Tip: CollingwoodThe Pies are the real deal this season and should win this clash against Adelaide although the $10.00 about the Crows is ridiculous when you consider the past two meetings between these two sides at the MCG has resulted in wins by less than a goal to both sides and the Crows always give Collingwood a run for their money.
Having said that, the Magpies are taking all before them at the moment and the return of Ball and Goldsack will strengthen them even further to enable them to notch another victory.
Sunday, 22 August AAMI 1:10pm Last Week
Port Adelaide scored a last gasp one point win at home over the Eagles and both Cameron Hitchcock and Brett Ebert scored 2 goals each while Kane Cornes 38 and Matt Thomas 32 had plenty of touches.
Melbourne went down by 21 points to Hawthorn with Liam Jurrah and Mark Jamar grabbing 2 goals and most disposals to Cameron Bruce 26 and Colin Sylvia 25.
This Week
Port Adelaide In: Pettigrew, Motlop, D.Stewart, Nash Out: Logan (Concussion)
Recent History
2010
R9
Melbourne 111
Port Adelaide
110
TIO
2009
R15
Melbourne 101
Port Adelaide
90
MCG
2009
R3
Port Adelaide 147
Melbourne
90
AAMI
2008
R21
Port Adelaide 129
Melbourne
51
AAMI
2007
R17
Port Adelaide 163
Melbourne
74
AAMI
The past two matches have gone by way of Melbourne including the most recent meeting in Round 10 at Darwin. Port Adelaide won the previous three encounters very easily all at AAMI Stadium.
Last 5 Rounds for & against
Port Adelaide
9.8
12.8
69
89
342
379
34.9
29.6
51
55
48
65
Melbourne
14.2
11.2
95
79
357
345
25.1
30.8
57
56
64
54
Melbourne are clearly better in all key indicators especially in attack and disposals per goal.
Our Tip: Port AdelaideDifficult game to predict because you never know which Port is going to turn up. The home side will fancy their chances here and that might have them trying a little harder to get the points although Melbourne is clearly travelling better of late.
The Demons are typically ordinary away from home but recent form says picking your own line at Centrebet and taking a points head start on the Demons is a good option for this game.
Sunday, 22 August Etihad 2:10pm Last Week
Essendon were hammered by Collingwood to the tune of 98 points and Angus Monfries nabbed 2 goals while Jobe Watson 30 and Brent Stanton 25 got most disposals.
The Brisbane Lions went down at home to the Crows by 7 points with Mitchell Clark kicking 5 goals and Cheynee Stiller, Simon Black and Tom Rockliff getting 27 touches.
This Week
Essendon In: Quinn, Marigliani, Prismall, Myers, Jetta Out: Dyson (Knee), Zaharakis (Knee)
Last 5 Rounds for & against
2009
R19
Essendon 87
Brisbane Lions 87
MCG
2009
R6
Brisbane Lions 111
Essendon
68
Gabba
2008
R15
Essendon 155
Brisbane Lions
118
Telstra
2007
R8
Essendon 127
Brisbane Lions
63
Telstra
2006
R17
Essendon 160
Brisbane Lions
123
Telstra
Essendon has won the last three clashes against Brisbane at this venue but they have failed to beat the Lions in their last two encounters. The last meeting resulted in a draw at the MCG in Round 19 last season.
Last 5 Rounds for & against
Essendon
13.4
15.8
93
127
368
367
27.5
23.2
48
59
62
57
Brisbane
9.6
14.2
68
98
350
391
36.4
27.5
47
53
67
64
Essendon are scoring 4 goals a game more than the Lions but they are conceding almost 2 goals a game more against compared to the Lions. Disposals per goal clearly favour the Bombers by around 8 disposals which is a very significant factor for this clash.
Our Tip: EssendonThe Bombers are capable of turning it on when they want to and one would expect them to take care of the Lions in Melbourne but if Jonathan Brown plays for Brisbane then he could pose plenty of problems for an Essendon defence without Dustin Fletcher. Essendon won’t want to lose this game and can get the points.
Sunday, 22 August Subiaco 4:40pm Last Week
West Coast came home hard against Port at AAMI Stadium to go down by a point with Andrew Strijk chipping in with 3 goals while Matthew Rosa 26 and Dean Cox 23 had most of the ball.
Nth Melbourne were no match for St Kilda and went down by 8 goals with Lachlan Hansen managing 4 majors and Samuel Wright 3, while Brady Rawlings 30 and Nathan Grima 26 had most disposals.
This Week
West Coast In: Hurn, Hams, Houlihan, Masten, J.Jones, Stevenson Out: A.Selwood (Shoulder), Swift, Sheppard (Shoulder)
Last 5 Rounds for & against
2010
R3
North Melbourne 116
West Coast
91
Etihad
2009
R20
West Coast 110
North Melbourne
72
Subiaco
2008
R8
North Melbourne 89
West Coast
83
Gold Coast
2007
R19
North Melbourne
102
West Coast 119
Telstra
2007
R10
West Coast 121
North Melbourne
55
Subiaco
West Coast has won three of the last five matches against the Roos which include the last two at Subiaco Oval. The past two meetings have gone by way of the home side and recent history between these two teams suggest Nth Melbourne are under the odds.
Last 5 Rounds for & against
West Coast
12.2
14.2
85
100
354
385
29.0
27.1
52
61
52
55
Nth Melb
14.2
14.8
96
100
385
388
27.1
26.2
51
57
64
56
Nth Melbourne has been performing a couple of goals better offensively but they are a goal worse in defence compared to the Eagles. Other key indicators are fairly even and the one glaring difference is the Roos 64 tackles per game as opposed to the Eagle’s 52.
Our Tip: West CoastThe Eagles got home hard against Port last weekend in Adelaide and there’s a fair chance they could go on with the job at home this week and make life difficult for the Kangaroos considering recent stats are fairly even and West Coast’s home ground advantage could be a telling factor.
If you want insurance then picking your own line at Centrebet and taking a points head start on the Eagles could be the way to go.
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Round 21 of AFL Football kicks off on Friday night 20th August at Etihad Stadium in Melbourne with a mouth watering clash between Geelong and Carlton where the Cats go in at very short odds for the win.
