A traditional Saturday afternoon blockbuster is back in the city of Melbourne when arch rivals Collingwood and Carlton do battle at the MCG in a must win game for the Blues.
In other Saturday games Port Adelaide host Hawthorn at AAMI, Sydney are at home to Geelong at ANZ Stadium and the Brisbane Lions welcome Melbourne to the Gabba.
Sunday matches include Richmond taking on Adelaide at the MCG, the Western Bulldogs squaring off against North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium, while the big Derby is on in Perth when Fremantle clash with West Coast at Subiaco Oval.
If you want the best odds on AFL Football Betfair where you can Back or Lay your fancy at the exact odds you want plus if you open a new account today and place a bet of $50 you will receive a $50 First Bet Refund if your first bet loses.
AFL Round 18 Preview
Friday 30 July Etihad Stadium 7:40pm Last Week
Essendon scored a hard earned three point win over Nth Melbourne with Kyle Hardingham 4 and Kyle Reimers 3 amongst the goals while Jobe Watson was brilliant with 38 possessions and Jason Winderlich had 27 of his own. St Kilda played out a draw with Hawthorn and Justin Koschitzke Stephen Milne and Adam Schneider grabbed 3 goals each and both Brendon Goddard and Lenny Hayes 30
This Week
Essendon In: Hille, Lonergan – Out: Winderlich (Hand), Jetta St Kilda In: Lynch – Out: Mcqualter
Recent History
2010
R8
St Kilda
81
Essendon 93
Etihad
2009
R20
Essendon 110
St Kilda
108
Etihad
2009
R8
St Kilda 90
Essendon
71
Etihad
2008
R22
Essendon
39
St Kilda 147
Telstra
2008
R5
St Kilda 123
Essendon
87
Telstra
The past five clashes between these two teams have all been played at this venue. Essendon has won their past two games against St Kilda including Round 8 this season while the Saints won the previous three meetings.
Last 5 Rounds for & against
Essendon
12.8
14.6
90
120
374
344
29.2
23.6
50
55
67
67
St Kilda
11.2
10.6
78
73
397
365
35.4
34.5
49
44
68
65
Essendon are averaging two goals a game more than St Kilda and score goals at 6 disposals less, however the Saints concede nearly 8 goals a game less than the Bombers and St Kilda’s disposals per goal against is almost 50% superiors than Essendon.
Our Tip: St KildaThe Bombers won the corresponding match earlier in the season with relentless speed and attack but Ross Lyon is a wily coach who will ensure the same thing doesn’t happen this time. The Saints have too much skill and ability all across the park which will enable them to take care of Essendon and get the four points.
Saturday 31 July MCG 2:10pm Last Week
Collingwood demolished Richmond by almost 14 goals with Leon Davis grabbing 4 and Leigh Brown, Alan Didak and Brent Macaffer all chiming in with three. Dane Swan got leather poisoning once again with 37 touches while Scott Pendlebury had 30.
This Week
Collingwood In: Cloke – Out: Lockyer Carlton In: Fisher – Out: Ellard
Recent History
2010
R6
Carlton
102
Collingwood 155
MCG
2009
R17
Carlton
40
Collingwood 94
MCG
2009
R8
Collingwood
53
Carlton 104
MCG
2008
R12
Collingwood
89
Carlton 119
MCG
2008
R4
Carlton 111
Collingwood
88
MCG
Collingwood belted Carlton earlier this season in Round 6 and over the past two seasons each team has won one game each with similar scorelines.
Last 5 Rounds for & against
Collingwood
16.6
8.2
113
60
388
364
23.4
44.4
52
41
69
55
Carlton
12.6
14.0
88
95
375
359
29.8
25.7
55
45
64
63
Collingwood are clearly better than Carlton in all key indicators except for Inside 50′s where the blues are slightly better, although the Pies have only been conceding 41 against. Carlton will need to find plenty if they want to upset the black and white this time round.
Our Tip: CollingwoodStats and figures suggest this is almost an impossible assignment for Carlton although when they play Collingwood anything can happen on the day. The Magpies will relish the big stage, big crowd and traditional opponent and we fancy them to get the job done over Carlton in comfortable fashion.
Saturday 31 July AAMI Stadium 2:40pm Last Week
Port scored a tough 19 point win over crosstown rivals the Crows in the Showdown with Justin Westhoff 4 goals and Brett Ebert 3 while major ball winners were Domenic Cassisi 28, Kane Cornes 28 and Danyle Pearce 27. Hawthorn were unlucky not to beat St Kilda but had to settle for a draw after 5 goals from Lance Franklin and 3 from Jarryd Roughead were not enough to snare the win. Luke Hodge got plenty of the ball with 33 disposals and Shaun Burgoyne was again good with 29.
This Week
Port Adelaide In: Krakouer, Trengove – Out: Carr (Retired), Logan (Concussion) Hawthorn In: Ladson Out: Brown (Suspended)
Recent History
2010
R11
Hawthorn 74
Port Adelaide
63
MCG
2009
R18
Port Adelaide 121
Hawthorn
103
AAMI
2009
R4
Hawthorn
85
Port Adelaide 115
MCG
2008
R8
Hawthorn 117
Port Adelaide
102
Aurora
2007
R20
Hawthorn
82
Port Adelaide 87
Aurora
Port Adelaide has beaten Hawthorn in three of their past five meetings including both matches last season. The Hawks won the most recent encounter in Round 11 at the MCG but it was only by 11 points and being played in Adelaide this game has danger written all over it for Hawthorn.
Last 5 Rounds for & against
Port Adelaide
10.8
14.6
73
100
358
378
33.1
25.9
42
49
57
64
Hawthorn
13.4
11.4
94
75
345
350
25.7
30.7
54
44
71
73
Hawthorn clearly better than Port over the last 5 rounds especially in both attack and defence. Disposals per goal significantly favour the Hawks and they go inside 50 more than 12 times a game more than Port giving them a clear edge in all key indicators. Recent history says this is a danger game for the Hawks but recent stats over the last 5 rounds suggest Port will be up against it.
Our Tip: HawthornPort turned the corner last week against the Crows and they are capable of an upset here on recent history if they bring the same intensity to this match. Having said that, on recent form Hawthorn are travelling much better than Port and we fancy the Hawks to get the win, but we wouldn’t be touching the $1.35. Port are better value if you pick your own line at Centrebet and take a points head start.
Saturday 31 July ANZ Stadium 7:10pm Last Week
Sydney were smashed by Melbourne to the tune of 73 points but Adam Goodes was solid with 4 goals and 26 touches while Nick Malceski, Daniel Hannebery and Ben McGlynn had 25 disposals each. Geelong destroyed a poor Brisbane outfit by over ten goals with Gary Ablett 5 goals and both Travis Varcoe and Steve Johnson 4 each. Joel Selwood had a great match with 41 disposals alongside Darren Milburn 35 and Jimmy Bartel 30.
This Week
Sydney No Changes Geelong In: Byrnes. Hawkins, West Out: Podsiadly (Soreness), Bartel (Ankle), Blake
Recent History
2010
R7
Geelong 126
Sydney
59
Skilled
2009
R20
Sydney
87
Geelong 92
ANZ
2009
R7
Geelong 116
Sydney
65
Skilled
2008
R20
Sydney
94
Geelong 133
ANZ
2008
R5
Geelong 114
Sydney
72
Skilled
Geelong has won its past five meetings against Sydney although they only won by 5 points last season in their closest match in recent times.
Last 5 Rounds for & against
Sydney
12.0
13.2
83
90
377
334
31.4
25.3
46
53
69
76
Geelong
12.0
10.0
84
71
425
367
35.4
36.7
51
50
65
63
Both sides averaging 12 goals each but the Cats defences is far superior to the Swans plus Geelong go Inside 50 five times more a game. Interestingly enough, Sydney’s disposals per goal rate is much better than the Cats, however Geelong get much more of the ball to offset that figure.
Our Tip: GeelongThe Swans are back at home and will be eager to restore some lost pride after their dismal effort last week against the Demons but they come up against the reigning premier in pretty good form and Geelong will defeat the Swans quite comfortably.
Sat 31 July Gabba 7:10pm Last Week
Brisbane were smashed by Geelong with Jonathan Brown leading the way with 4 goals while major ball winners were Luke Power 36 and Tom Rockliff 31. Melbourne scored their best win of the season against Sydney with Brad Green starring up forward kicking 5 goals and most touches went to Colin Sylvia 28 and James Frawley 27.
This Week
Brisbane Lions In: Mcgrath, Clarke, Stiller, Black Out: Buchanan (Quad), Maguire, Hawksley, Cornelius Melbourne In: Mcdonald Out Maric
Recent History
2010
R5
Melbourne 103
Brisbane Lions
53
MCG
2009
R13
Brisbane Lions 111
Melbourne
56
Gabba
2008
R14
Melbourne 93
Brisbane Lions
92
MCG
2008
R6
Brisbane Lions 137
Melbourne
85
Gabba
2007
R15
Melbourne
82
Brisbane Lions 126
Gabba
These games tend to go by way of the home side in recent times which favours the Brisbane Lions in this match.
Last 5 Rounds for & against
Brisbane
9.4
16.0
65
110
332
408
35.3
25.5
39
57
73
64
Melbourne
14.2
13.2
95
94
348
378
24.5
28.7
43
54
72
64
The Demons clearly superior in key indicators and they score goals at 25 disposals compared to the Lions 35 and this is definitely a game Melbourne have the upper hand on recent stats.
Our Tip: MelbourneThe Lions will be better at home one would think but on current form you couldn’t pick them if they were playing a VFL team, although they have some more than handy types returning to the side, including Simon Black. Melbourne are the value here and even though they don’t have a fantastic record away from home, we would prefer to be on an in-form Demons side rather than an out of form Brisbane side, even at the Gabba.
Sunday 1 August MCG 1:10pm Last Week
Richmond came back to earth with a thud when smashed by Collingwood and Jack Riewoldt was again leading scorer with 2 goals while Shane Tuck 25, Mitch Morton 25 and Ben Cousins 24 got most of the ball. Adelaide were put to the sword by Port in the showdown and couldn’t cut it.
T his Week
Richmond In: Moore, White, Jackson, Thursfield, Taylor, Hicks Out: Polo, Nahas, Post Adelaide In: Davis, Gunston, Sellar, Schmidt Out: Johncock (Suspended)
Recent History
2010
R7
Adelaide 104
Richmond
54
AAMI
2009
R14
Richmond
85
Adelaide 102
Gold Coast
2008
R19
Adelaide 108
Richmond
45
AAMI
2008
R11
Richmond
96
Adelaide 146
MCG
2007
R8
Adelaide 99
Richmond
90
AAMI
The Crows have won their past five meetings against Richmond which will give Adelaide a great deal of confidence going into this match.
Last 5 Rounds for & against
Richmond
12.2
13.8
84
96
348
373
28.5
27.0
49
48
68
72
Adelaide
14.4
10.4
100
72
378
373
26.3
35.9
57
38
62
73
Adelaide are scoring two goals a game more than the Tigers and conceding almost four goals a game less which is significant, plus the Crows go inside 50 eight more times on average which says Richmond will need to play well above their recent form to get anywhere near the Crows.
Our Tip: Adelaide CrowsThe Crows struggled to score goals last week against Port and it proved very costly in the end but they can be forgiven for that loss as their form of late has been very good. The Tigers have gone back to old habits in recent weeks and and the Crows loom as the likely winners in this match.
Western Bulldogs
Nth Melbourne
1.16 5.40
Sunday 1 August Etihad 2:10pm Last Week
The Western Bulldogs towelled Fremantle by 82 points and Barry Hall scored 4 goals while Ryan Griffen, Brian Lake and Jarrad Grant chimed in with 3 each. Adam Cooney had plenty of the ball with 36 possessions along with Matthew Boyd 33, Jarrod Harbrow 32 and Daniel Cross 31. Nth Melbourne were disappointing losing to the Bombers by three points and Aaron Edwards grabbed 4 majors along with Ben Warren 3 while Brent Harvey had 30 touches along with Brady Rawlings 28.
This Week
Western Bulldogs In: Addison, Everitt, Eagleton, Jones Out: Ward (Hip) North Melbourne In: Mcmahon, Thomas, White, Norris, Wright Out: Hale, Warren (Back)
Recent History
2010
R9
North Melbourne
57
Western Bulldogs 127
Etihad
2009
R13
North Melbourne
86
Western Bulldogs 108
MCG
2009
R2
Western Bulldogs 80
North Melbourne
65
MCG
2008
R19
North Melbourne 136
Western Bulldogs
116
Telstra
2008
R9
Western Bulldogs
110
North Melbourne 113
Telstra
The Western Bulldogs defeated the Roos both times last season and earlier this year in Round 9 the Dogs scored a 70 point win over Nth Melbourne.
Last 5 Rounds for & against
Nth Melb
13.6
13.0
94
90
350
402
25.8
31.0
50
50
65
67
West Bulldogs
16.8
9.6
112
64
421
348
25.0
36.3
57
44
59
53
In an ominous sign for other teams in the eight, the Western Bulldogs are in full flight and scoring easily while only conceding an average of 64 points over the last 5 rounds which makes the Roos task very tough in this encounter.
Our Tip: Western BulldogsThe Bulldogs hammered the Roos in Round 9 this season and the boys from the west have improved in leaps and bounds since that game and will win this easily in their current form.
Sun 1 Aug Subiaco 2:40pm Last Week
Fremantle gave up fourth spot on the ladder when they were demolished by the Western Bulldogs and Matthew Pavlich did best up forward with 4 goals and major ball winners were Nick Suban 24 and Roger Hayden 22. West Coast went down by 26 points to the Blues after leading comfortably at half-time and Mark LeCras snarted 3 goals while Andrew Embley 27 and Matthew Rosa 26 got most of the ball.
This Week
Fremantle In: Bradley, Mundy, Walters, Bollenhagen, Tarrant Out: Palmer (Shoulder), Pearce (Knee) West Coast In: Jones, Mcginnity, Mckinley, Swift, Wilson Out: A.Selwood (Shoulder), Hams (Suspended)P
Recent History
2010
R6
West Coast
73
Fremantle 111
Subiaco
2009
R17
Fremantle 71
West Coast
66
Subiaco
2009
R6
West Coast
74
Fremantle 87
Subiaco
2008
R18
Fremantle 116
West Coast
83
Subiaco
2008
R3
West Coast
73
Fremantle 87
Subiaco
Fremantle has won the last five Derby matches against West Coast.
Last 5 Rounds for & against
Fremantle
13.0
13.8
90
95
332
393
25.5
28.5
48
52
64
65
West Coast
12.2
16.6
84
116
371
403
30.4
24.3
46
60
54
61
All key indicators clearly favour the Dockers, especially down back where they are much better than the Eagles while disposals per goal also suggest Fremantle have it over the West Coast.
Our Tip: FremantleThe Dockers have been performing very creditably until last week but with constant changes to the side due to injuries they can be forgiven for one poor showing against a top 4 side in the Bulldogs. Fremantle have had the wood on West Coast in recent times and considering where both teams are on the ladder it’s the Dockers for ours.
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Round 18 of AFL Football kicks off with the big clash on Friday night at Etihad Stadium between Essendon and St Kilda where the Saints will be looking to turn the tables on the Bombers from earlier in the season.
