Geelong tackle the Brisbane Lions on Saturday at Skilled Stadium with the rampant Collingwood facing the lowly Richmond at the MCG in Melbourne at the same time.
In the late afternoon West Coast host Carlton at Subiaco Oval and North Melbourne face Essendon under lights at at Etihad Stadium on Saturday night.
Sunday games have the Western Bulldogs up against Fremantle at Etihad Stadium, Melbourne and Sydney at the MCG while another Showdown in the city of churches when Port Adelaide and Adelaide line up against each other at AMMI Stadium.
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AFL Round 17 Preview
Fri 23 July Etihad 7:40pm Last Week
St Kilda were outplayed by Collingwood to the tune of 84 points with Jack Steven kicking 2 goals and Leigh Montagna 34 and Sam Fisher 33 getting plenty of the ball. Hawthorn proved far too good for the Brisbane Lion with both Jarryd Roughead and Jordan Lewis grabbing 4 majors along with Michael Osborne, Xavier Ellis and Clinton Young 3 each. Brad Sewell and Luke Hodge had 39 touches while Sam Mitchell had 35 on his return.
This Week
St Kilda In: Dal Santo, McEvoy – Out: Pattison, Geary Hawthorn In: Franklin Out: – Peterson (wisdom teeth)
Recent History
2009
R19
Hawthorn
49
St Kilda 74
Aurora
2008
PF
Hawthorn 118
St Kilda
64
MCG
2008
R16
St Kilda 119
Hawthorn
89
Telstra
2007
R16
St Kilda 95
Hawthorn
78
Telstra
2007
R8
Hawthorn 72
St Kilda
44
MCG
St Kilda won the only meeting last season when they restricted the Hawks to just 49 points and prior to that match they had two wins each in their past four games.
Last 5 Rounds for & against
St Kilda
10.8
10
77
69
397
358
36.7
35.8
51
41
66
68
Hawthorn
14.6
10.8
101
73
345
350
23.6
32.4
53
44
77
73
Both sides are conceding around 69-73 points which is an excellent figure but the Hawks are scoring 4 goals a game more than the Saints which shows you the kind of form Hawthorn are in. Disposals per goal significantly favour the the Hawks at 24 compared to St Kilda’s 37 and that is a huge discrepancy.
Our Tip: HawthornThe return of Reiwoldt to the Saints has stemmed the influence around goal of Stephen Milne and the Hawks key indicators show they are travelling very nicely to make them great value here, especially if you pick your own line at Centrebet and take a points head start.
Sat 24 July Skilled 2:10pm Last Week
Geelong Brisbane were smashed by Hawthorn in Tasmania with Jonathan Brown nabbing 3 with most touches to Jared Brennan 23, Luke Power 22 and Michael Rischitelli 22.
This Week
Geelong In: Milburn, Johnson Out: Byrnes (soreness), Hogan Brisbane In: Hawksley, Harwood, Proud, Cornelius Out: McGrath (suspended), Sherman, Collier, Johnstone
Recent History
2010
R8
Brisbane Lions
74
Geelong 155
Gabba
2009
R15
Brisbane Lions 108
Geelong
65
Gabba
2009
R5
Geelong 126
Brisbane Lions
33
Skilled
2008
R7
Geelong 105
Brisbane Lions
78
Skilled
2007
R22
Brisbane Lions
103
Geelong 145
Gabba
Geelong has won four of the last five clashes and have been too strong at Skilled in most recent meetings.
Last 5 Rounds for & against
Geelong
12.8
10.6
89
75
417
362
32.6
34.2
52
50
62
62
Brisbane
9.2
15.6
63
109
335
398
36.4
25.5
39
57
73
62
Geelong are well down on their early season key indicators but they are still clearly better than the Lions.
Our Tip: GeelongStats and figures and home ground advantage all suggest Geelong will run out comfortable winners in this match.
Sat 24 Jul MCG 2:10pm Last Week Collingwood finally got the St Kilda monkey off their back with a big victory at the MCG and lesser lights Brent Macaffer and Leigh Brown managed 3 goals while Dane Swan was brilliant with 36 touches and Alan Didak had 33 of his own. Richmond came back to earth with a 50 point loss at the hands of Nth Melbourne with Jack Riewoldt again leading the way with 3 goals and Daniel Connors 30, Ben Cousins 27 getting most of the ball.
This Week Collingwood In: Maxwell – Out: Shaw (back) Richmond In: Morton, Polo, Rance, Nason, Post, Browne Out: Cotchin (suspended), Tambling, Moore (leg), White (leg), Thursfield (concussion), Vickery
Recent History
2009
R20
Richmond
59
Collingwood 152
MCG
2008
R3
Richmond
78
Collingwood 122
MCG
2007
R19
Richmond 116
Collingwood
96
MCG
2007
R3
Collingwood 115
Richmond
90
MCG
2006
R13
Richmond 92
Collingwood
45
MCG
Richmond has won two of the last five meetings against the Pies but the last two clashes have seen Collingwood give the Tigers a flogging on both occasions.
Last 5 Rounds for & against
Collingwood
14.6
9.2
102
66
373
376
25.6
40.9
52
41
77
54
Richmond
12.6
12.8
86
90
341
370
27.1
28.9
49
48
68
77
Collingwood are conceding less than 10 goals a game in recent weeks and scoring over 100+ points against better sides than Richmond and considering their positions on the ladder all key indicators are point towards the black and white.
Our Tip: CollingwoodRichmond has made a number of changes to the side that has been performing so well of late and last week’s loss to the Roos brought them thundering back to earth very quickly. It doesn’t get any better for Richmond this week when they front up to the high flying Magpies who are in sparkling form and regain the services of captain Nick Maxwell from injury for the clash against the Tigers.
Richmond generally have a decent crack against the Pies but it’s hard to see anything but a Collingwood victory here.
Sat 24 July Subiaco 5:40pm Last Week West Coast were brilliant in Melbourne last round when the Eagles got over the Bombers on the back of 12 goals from Mark LeCras 12 with Matthew Priddis 32 and Adam Selwood 26 playing great games. Carlton were poor against Sydney with only Shaun Hampson getting multiple goals with 2 and major ball winners were Chris Judd 28, Heath Scotland 27 and Jordan Russell 26.
This Week West Coast No Changes Carlton In: Warnock, Johnson, Ellard Out: Jacobs, Robinson, Lucas (hamstring)
Recent History
2010
R10
Carlton 105
West Coast
76
Etihad
2009
R10
Carlton 111
West Coast
70
Etihad
2008
R7
West Coast
74
Carlton 111
Subiaco
2007
R4
West Coast 100
Carlton
39
Subiaco
2006
R11
West Coast 111
Carlton
101
Subiaco
Carlton has won the last three meetings between these two teams quite comfortably and the West Coast have failed to score over 76 points in each encounter.
Last 5 Rounds for & against
West Coast
12.2
17.4
83
119
375
398
30.7
22.9
46
60
61
64
Carlton
11.6
14.6
80
98
366
364
31.6
24.9
52
47
67
69
Both of these sides have been very average over the last 5 rounds although the Eagles were superb last week in Melbourne. Key indicators slightly favour Carlton but with the game being played in Perth this is a danger game for Carlton.
Our Tip: West Coast EaglesCarlton have been poor at home in Melbourne in recent weeks and although they are better placed here against the lowly Eagles you couldn’t really get on the Blues to get the job done, particularly when West Coast had such a confidence boosting win over Essendon at Etihad last weekend.
The Eagles on pick your own line with a points head start at Centrebet are a great bet here and Carlton are very much under the odds for ours.
Sat 24 July Etihad 7:10pm Last Week Nth Melbourne scored a top 50 point win over the Tigers last round with Leigh Adams scoring 3 goals and major possession winners were Andrew Swallow 31 and Leigh Adams 28. Essendon were most disappointing when defeated by West Coast and Brent Stanton grabbed 3 while Travis Colyer 27, Jason Winderlich 24 and Nathan Lovett-Murray 24 had most touches.
This Week Nth Melbourne In: MacMillan, Josh Smith Out: Tarrant (broken thumb), Wright (concussion) Essendon In: Houli, Jetta, Hardingham Out: Bellchambers (foot), Melksham, Lovett-Murray
Recent History
2009
R4
North Melbourne 69
Essendon
57
Etihad
2008
R1
North Melbourne
67
Essendon 122
Telstra
2007
R7
North Melbourne 117
Essendon
95
Telstra
2006
R13
North Melbourne 96
Essendon
89
Telstra
2005
R14
Essendon
86
North Melbourne 128
Telstra
Nth Melbourne has a great record over the Bombers in recent times and have won four of the last five matches including their only meeting at this venue last season.
Last 5 Rounds for & against
Nth Melb
12.8
11.4
89
79
359
393
28
34.4
51
48
64
70
Essendon
11.6
19
82
127
358
364
30.9
19.2
47
58
69
63
The Bombers are conceding almost 20 goals a game and almost one every 19 disposals. Compare that the the Roos who are conceding just 79 points a round at the great figure of 34 disposals indicates Essendon are going to have to find some major firepower to win this one.
Our Tip: Nth MelbourneAll stats and key indicators clearly favour Nth Melbourne and when you add recent form and combine it with Nth’s dominance over the Bombers of late then the Roos appear the likely victors in this match.
Sun 25 July Etihad 1:10pm Last Week Western Bulldogs comfortably beat Port Adelaide up in Darwin with Jarrad Grant and Matthew Boyd snaring 2 goals each while Boyd also had 35 touches along with Daniel Cross 33 and Jarrod Harbrow 32. Fremantle were too good at home to Melbourne with Hayden Ballantyne grabbing 4 goals and David Mundy 2 while Paul Duffield 22 and Adam McPhee 21 had most of the ball.
T his Week Carlton In: Hall, Roughead, Addison Out: – Fremantle In: Bollenhagen, Crichton, Pearce, Schammer, Grover, Suban Out: Bradley (knee), Crowley (knee), Silvagni (groin)
Recent History
2009
R18
Western Bulldogs 111
Fremantle
80
Etihad
2009
R1
Fremantle
94
Western Bulldogs 157
Subiaco
2008
R8
Fremantle
111
Western Bulldogs 114
Subiaco
2007
R12
Western Bulldogs 141
Fremantle
115
TIO
2006
R11
Western Bulldogs 100
Fremantle
86
Telstra
The Bulldogs have dominated the Dockers in recent times and have won the last five matches comprehensively.
Last 5 Rounds for & against
West Bulldogs
15.4
8.8
105
60
412
360
26.8
41
56
45
58
54
Fremantle
12.6
11.4
88
80
336
372
26.7
32.6
48
51
64
65
The Western Bulldogs have improved in leaps and bounds in recent weeks and down back they are only conceding 60 points a game. The Dockers have also been good defensively but are struggling a little up forward compared to earlier in the season. Recent history and key indicators heavily in favour of the Bulldogs.
Our Tip: Western BulldogsA battle for the Top 4 looms here and the Bulldogs are in the box seat with a settled side who are playing solid football up against a Fremantle team who have been gallant in recent weeks with constant injuries stopping any continuity for the Perth side.
The Dockers have won 11 and only lost 5 so they are definitely the value here at the moment especially if you pick your own line at Centrebet and take a points head start, but we predict a Western Bulldogs win.
Sun 25 July MCG 2:10pm Last Week Melbourne battled hard before going down in gallant style in Perth to the Dockers with Jamie Bennell, Liam Jurrah and Aaron Davey claiming 2 goals while Colin Sylvia had 23 touches and Tom Scully 22. Sydney were too good for the Blues in Melbourne by 39 points with Rhyce Shaw kicking 3 goals and Heath Grundy most touches with 26 while Adam Goodes, Paul Bevan and Nick Malceski had 25 each.
This Week Melbourne In: Wonaeamirri, Warnock, Maric Out: – Sydney In: Jetta, Dennis-Lane, Reid, Rohan, Out: Smith (hamstring)
Recent History
2009
R17
Melbourne
50
Sydney 68
Manuka
2008
R13
Melbourne
74
Sydney 114
Manuka
2007
R18
Melbourne
64
Sydney 112
Manuka
2007
R5
Sydney 109
Melbourne
60
SCG
2006
R19
Melbourne
63
Sydney 95
MCG
Sydney has won the last five games played against Melbourne with the last three being played at Manuka Oval in Perth. The last time they met at this venue in 2006 the Swans ran out easy winners.
Last 5 Rounds for & against
Melbourne
12
13
81
96
359
380
30
29.2
39
56
68
72
Sydney
12.8
10.4
88
73
386
328
30.1
31.6
47
48
72
80
Sydney have outperformed the Demons up forward over the past five rounds and down back they are clearly better. The Swans go inside 50 eight times a game more than the Demons and Melbourne face an uphill battle.
Our Tip: SydneySydney should be able to get the job done here on the back of their solid recent form although Melbourne tend to play the MCG very well and if they bring the same game they played against the Dockers last round they will be in this for a long way but will ultimately fall short.
Sun 25 July AAMI 4:10pm Last Week Port were defeated by 36 points at the hands of the Bulldogs with Jay Schulz and Kane Cornes chiming in with 2 goals and Cornes also grabbing 36 disposals along with Danyle Pearce 30. Adelaide were very impressive in their win over Geelong and Taylor Walker was good with 4 goals while Bernie Vince 32 and Simon Goodwin 29 got plenty of the ball.
This Week Port Adelaide In: McPharlin, Broughton, Fyfe, Tarrant – Out: Ruffles Adelaide In: Bail, Maric, Warnock, Morton – Out: Trengove (hip)
Recent History
2010
R6
Adelaide
74
Port Adelaide 97
AAMI
2009
R17
Adelaide 132
Port Adelaide
62
AAMI
2009
R6
Port Adelaide 105
Adelaide
79
AAMI
2008
R16
Port Adelaide 92
Adelaide
80
AAMI
2008
R3
Adelaide 85
Port Adelaide
79
AAMI
Port won the Round 6 encounter earlier this year when Port were travelling pretty well and the Crows were not. Both sides won two each of the previous four meetings and these matches are generally hotly contested affairs.
Last 5 Rounds for & against
Port Adelaide
9.8
15.6
66
105
354
388
36.1
24.9
40
50
60
63
Adelaide
14.8
11.6
102
79
381
375
25.7
32.3
55
39
63
74
Disposals per goal clearly favour the Crows and For and Against figures are damning for Port and they are going to need an massive injection of firepower to get anywhere near the Crows.
Our Tip: AdelaideShowdowns are always a battle and this should be no different but the Crows will have gained tremendous confidence from the win over Geelong last week and on current form Adelaide should beat Port quite easily.
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Round 17 of AFL Football action begins with St Kilda and Hawthorn doing battle on Friday night under lights at Etihad Stadium in the match of the round.
